Investor psychology in times of crisis | Lessons learned

“Fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” – Warren Buffet

The last week has been an interesting view on my own psychology, on how all the best-made plans aren’t worth anything if you don’t have conviction and resolve. Fintwit talked about keeping a trading diary and here is my attempt to keep myself intellectually honest!

I am not a trader. I strongly believe that on a really long term horizon stocks will outperform every asset class. I also believe that the best opportunity to purchase assets is when everyone else is scared. In my lifetime I’ve seen two recessions – dotcom and GFC. I had just started my career during the dotcom boom and didn’t know anything and right before the GFC, we bought a house (great timing right :). So never had any cash to capitalize on the downswings in markets. I’d always thought that in the next downswing, I will be prepared and buy in-size!Read More »

Fear and loathing on Wall Street

Warning: Stream of consciousness follows! This week has been wild in the markets and I wanted to put my thoughts on paper and #timestamp my thinking. Standard disclaimer applies; none of this should be taken as investment advice!

RIP good times again?

Sequoia published version 2.0 of its RIP good times memo, catchily titled Coronavirus black swan of 2020. Taleb is furiously deadlifting somewhere right now 🙂 What was public stock performance since RIP good times? Looking back it looks like the S&P ripped up since its publication in October ’08. Is this the ultimate contrarian indicator? Are VC’s the last group to point at markets crashing? Is it all upside from here?Read More »

Always look forward

Hey Dhruv,

I know daddy has been remiss in writing these notes regularly. Daddy took a new gig at a startup and things are hectic. Daddy’s loving it though, its a fun ride!

Daddy wants to talk today about a movie by Woody Allen called “Midnight in Paris”. The central character in this movie (played by Owen Wilson) is obsessed with 1920’s Paris. He’s a writer and thinks the best work came out of that era. As it happens in movies, very unscientifically, he is transported to 1920 and gets to meet all his heroes. He loves it. As luck would have it (it is the movies after all) he meets his muse in the 1920’s. She likes art and literature just like him but surprisingly is obsessed about the 1890’s. She believes that the best work came out of that time period. So, double transport, they both go to the 1890’s to meet their idols and guess what, the folks in the 1890’s believe the best work came out of the renaissance!
Read More »

Apple’s recent 10Q Buzzfeed style

Monetary musings goes listicle, buzzfeed style. My good friend Sidd Singh has a post on his blog on why he is long AAPL, which got me thinking, what does the 10Q say? I’m bearish by nature so there is a downward bias :), bear with me!  Here are the 6 things that are interesting questions for investors from their latest 10K. By no means is this list comprehensive, just some observations based on a quick read.

Down the rabbit hole we go.

Read More »