I’m minding my own business and come across this video on Yahoo finance titled “FB to miss whisper number”. I’m long FB so I naturally want to hear this. I watch the video, all 3 minutes of it. I start laughing hysterically! I’ll explain in a bit. First watch the video here (Sorry can’t embed, Yahoo only allows direct links).
The reasons for my uncontrolled mirth below. In bold are the points raised by the good folks in this clip.
Facebook is set to miss whisper number
Admittedly this is his own “whisper number” that he defines and does not disclose. Its damn easy to miss a non disclosed whisper number. My prediction, every company in the S&P is going to miss their whisper number (as defined by me off course!). I am a goddamn genius, SEND ME YOUR MONEY
Disappointing Mobile App growth
Again, no disclosure on what he thinks it should be or what he is expecting. From FB’s recent 10Q
Mobile MAU’s are up ~64%% Y/Y (751 from 458 , in millions) and up ~10% from last quarter (751 from 680, in millions)
Shocked at how quickly FB is decaying in front of our eyes
By which metric genius? How about some data
Some traders called him to ask to short, he says be careful whisper could be wrong
This made me chuckle. First he said, whisper would miss, and now don’t short because whisper could be wrong and they might actually exceed. So its like yes and no and toss in a maybe as well?
Facebook cannot get a buck out of me right now
ARPU in the US is at $3.50 per user for Q1 13. Does this guy even understand the basic business model of FB? Just because he doesn’t pay FB something directly, they don’t make money of users? Shit, by that logic Google should be a Zero revenue business too then!
Does this pass as analysis now? I need my own TV show.
Disclosure : Long FB